On the flight back, Sarah Jones was overcome with confused feelings. First of all, she was profoundly distressed by the fact that George Morton’s body had been recovered; in some part of her mind, she had been hoping against hope that he would turn up alive. Then there was the question of Peter Evans. Just as she was starting to like him—starting to see a side of him that was not wimpy, but rather tough and resilient in his own bumbling way—just as she was beginning, in fact, to have the first stirrings of feelings toward the man who had saved her life, suddenly there was this new woman, Jennifer somebody, and Peter was obviously taken with her.
And in addition, there was the arrival of Ted Bradley. Sarah had no illusions about Ted; she had seen him in action at innumerable NERF gatherings, and she had even once allowed him to work his charms on her—she was a sucker for actors—but at the last moment decided he reminded her too much of her ex. What was it about actors, anyway? They were so engaging, so personal in their approach, so intense in their feelings. It was hard to realize that they were just self-absorbed people who would do anything to get you to like them.
At least, Ted was.
And how had he been injured? Bitten his own tongue? Sarah had the feeling it had to do with this Jennifer. Undoubtedly, Ted had made a pass at her. The woman was pretty enough in a street-smart kind of way; dark hair, toughish face, compact body, muscular but skinny. A typical speeded-up New York type—in every way Sarah’s opposite.
And Peter Evans was fawning over her.
Fawning.
It was sort of disgusting, but she had to admit she was disappointed personally as well. Just as she had started to like him. She sighed.
As for Bradley, he was talking to Kenner about environmental issues, showing off his extensive knowledge. And Kenner was looking at Bradley the way a python looks at a rat.
“So,” Kenner said, “global warming represents a threat to the world?”
“Absolutely,” Bradley said. “A threat to the whole world.”
“What sort of threat are we talking about?”
“Crop failures, spreading deserts, new diseases, species extinction, all the glaciers melting, Kilimanjaro, sea-level rise, extreme weather, tornadoes, hurricanes, El Niño events—”
“That sounds extremely serious,” Kenner said.
“It is,” Bradley said. “It really is.”
“Are you sure of your facts?”
“Of course.”
“You can back your claims with references to the scientific literature?”
“Well, I can’t personally, but scientists can.”
“Actually, scientific studies do not support your claims. For example, crop failure—if anything, increased carbon dioxide stimulates plant growth. There is some evidence that this is happening. And the most recent satellite studies show the Sahara has shrunk since 1980.* As for new diseases—not true. The rate of emergence of new diseases has not changed since 1960.”
“But we’ll have diseases like malaria coming back to the US and Europe.”
“Not according to malaria experts.”*
Bradley snorted and folded his hands across his chest.
“Species extinction hasn’t been demonstrated either. In the 1970s, Norman Myers predicted a million species would be extinct by the year2000. Paul Ehrlich predicted that fifty percent of all species would be extinct by the year 2000. But those were just opinions.† Do you know what we call opinion in the absence of evidence? We call it prejudice. Do you know how many species there are on the planet?”
“No.”
“Neither does anybody else. Estimates range from three million to one hundred million. Quite a range, wouldn’t you say? Nobody really has any idea.”‡
“Your point being?”
“It’s hard to know how many species are becoming extinct if you don’t know how many there are in the first place. How could you tell if you were robbed if you didn’t know how much money you had in your wallet to begin with? And fifteen thousand new species are described every year. By the way, do you know what the known rate of species extinction is?”
“No.”
“That’s because there is no known rate. Do you know how they measure numbers of species and species extinctions? Some poor bastard marks off a hectare or an acre of land and then tries to count all the bugs and animals and plants inside it. Then he comes back in ten years and counts again. But maybe the bugs have moved to an adjacent acre in the meantime. Anyway, can you imagine trying to count all the bugs in an acre of land?”
“It would be difficult.”
“To put it mildly. And very inaccurate,” Kenner said, “which is the point. Now, about all the glaciers melting—not true. Some are, some aren’t.”*
“Nearly all of them are.”
Kenner smiled thinly. “How many glaciers are we talking about?”
“Dozens.”
“How many glaciers are there in the world, Ted?”
“I don’t know.”
“Guess.”
“Maybe, uh, two hundred.”
“There are more than that in California.† There are one hundred sixty thousand glaciers in the world, Ted. About sixty-seven thousand have been inventoried, but only a few have been studied with any care. There is mass balance data extending five years or more for only seventy-nine glaciers in the entire world. So, how can you say they’re all melting? Nobody knows whether they are or not.”‡
“Kilimanjaro is melting.”
“Why is that?”
“Global warming.”
“Actually, Kilimanjaro has been rapidly melting since the 1800s—long before global warming. The loss of the glacier has been a topic of scholarly concern for over a hundred years. And it has always been something of a mystery because, as you know, Kilimanjaro is an equatorial volcano, so it exists in a warm region. Satellite measurements of that region show no warming trend at the altitude of the Kilimanjaro glacier. So why is it melting?”
Sulking: “You tell me.”
“Because of deforestation, Ted. The rain forest at the base of the mountain has been cut down, so the air blowing upward is no longer moist. Experts think that if the forest is replanted the glacier will grow again.”
“That’s bullshit.”
“I’ll give you the journal references.* Now then—sea-level rise? Was that the next threat you mentioned?”
“Yes.”
“Sea level is indeed rising.”
“Ah-hah!”
“As it has been for the last six thousand years, ever since the start of the Holocene. Sea level has been rising at the rate of ten to twenty centimeters—that’s four to eight inches—every hundred years.”†
“But it’s rising faster now.”
“Actually, not.”
“Satellites prove it.”
“Actually, they don’t.”‡
“Computer models prove it’s rising faster.”§
“Computer models can’t prove anything, Ted. A prediction can’t ever be proof—it hasn’t happened yet. And computer models have failed to accurately predict the last ten or fifteen years. But if you want to believe in them anyway, there is no arguing with faith. Now, what was next on your list? Extreme weather—again, not true. Numerous studies show there is no increase.”*
“Look,” Ted said, “you may enjoy putting me down, but the fact is, lots of people think there will be more extreme weather, including more hurricanes and tornadoes and cyclones, in the future.”
“Yes, indeed, lots of people think so. But scientific studies do not bear them out.† That’s why we do science, Ted, to see if our opinions can be verified in the real world, or whether we are just having fantasies.”
“All these hurricanes are not fantasies.”
Kenner sighed. He flipped open his laptop.
“What are you doing?”
“One moment,” Kenner said. “Let me bring it up.”
US Hurricane Strikes by Decade 1900–2004
“Here is the actual data, Ted,” Kenner said. “US hurricane strikes over the last hundred years are clearly not increasing. And similarly, extreme weather is not more frequent globally. The data simply do not agree with you. Now, you also mentioned El Niño events.”
“Yes…”
“As you know, El Niño is a global weather pattern that begins when ocean temperatures along the west coast of South America remain above normal for several months. Once it’s triggered, El Niño lasts about a year and a half, affecting weather around the world. El Niño occurs roughly every four years—twenty-three times in the last century. And it has been occurring for thousands of years. So it long precedes any claim of global warming.* But what threat does El Niño represent to the US, Ted? There was a major El Niño in 1998.”
“Floods, crops ruined, like that.”
“All that happened. But the net economic effect of the last El Niño was a gain of fifteen billion dollars because of a longer growing season and less use of winter heating oil. That’s after deducting $1.5 billion for flooding and excess rain in California. Still a net benefit.”
“I’d like to see that study,” Bradley said.
“I’ll make sure you get it.† Because of course it also suggests that if global warming really does occur, it will probably benefit most nations of the world.”
“But not all.”
“No, Ted. Not all.”
“So what exactly is your point?” Bradley said. “You’re saying that we don’t need to pay any attention to the environment, that we can just leave it alone and let industry pollute and everything will be hunkydory?”
For a [moment, it looked to Sarah as if Kenner would get angry, but he did not. He said, “If you oppose the death penalty, does it also mean you are in favor of doing nothing at all about crime?”
“No,” Ted said.
“You can oppose the death penalty but still favor punishing criminals.”
“Yes. Of course.”
“Then I can say that global warming is not a threat but still favor environmental controls, can’t I?”
“But it doesn’t sound like you are saying that.”
Kenner sighed.
Sarah was listening to this exchange, thinking Bradley wasn’t really hearing what Kenner had to say. As if to prove her thoughts, Bradley continued: “Well? Aren’t you saying that the environment needs no protection from us? Isn’t that what you are really saying?”
Kenner said, “No,” in a way that suggested that the conversation was over.
Sarah thought: Ted really is a fool. He has a severely limited understanding of what he is talking about. Ted was an actor with a script, at a loss if the conversation moved away from scripted lines.
She turned away and looked toward the front of the cabin. She saw Peter talking to Jennifer, their heads together. There was a sort of intimacy in their gestures that was instantly recognizable.
She was glad when the pilot announced they were landing in Los Angeles.